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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.97+3.35vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.23+4.14vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.05+3.70vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.38-0.56vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.52+0.55vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.28+0.16vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.51+1.15vs Predicted
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8McGill University0.07+3.53vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.33-3.00vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.97-2.89vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.79-6.12vs Predicted
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12Yale University0.62-1.41vs Predicted
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13Wesleyan University-1.20+0.66vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.29-0.33vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut-0.26-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Roger Williams University2.970.1%1st Place
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6.14Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.7Northeastern University2.050.1%1st Place
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3.44Tufts University3.380.2%1st Place
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5.55University of Rhode Island2.520.1%1st Place
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6.16Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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8.15Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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11.53McGill University0.070.0%1st Place
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6.0Tufts University2.330.1%1st Place
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7.11Roger Williams University1.970.1%1st Place
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4.88Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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10.59Yale University0.620.0%1st Place
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13.66Wesleyan University-1.200.0%1st Place
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13.67University of New Hampshire-1.290.0%1st Place
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12.08University of Connecticut-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendal Richardson | 14.9% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Beatty | 23.3% | 19.4% | 16.4% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Clara Jones | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Macklin Fluehr | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Arthur Olivenstein | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 20.0% | 22.8% | 16.9% | 4.5% |
| Kate Shaner | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Eger | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Alexander | 12.7% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Lewis | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 18.0% | 24.4% | 15.2% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Maia Nelles-Sager | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 29.8% | 40.6% |
| Matthew Dawley | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 14.4% | 26.7% | 42.3% |
| Kimberly Jackman | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 26.0% | 18.8% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.