Race 5B

tom-curtis

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mary Kate Mezzetti 23.8% 20.9% 14.5% 12.8% 10.6% 7.8% 5.6% 3.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Cristina Ortiz Vivas 9.9% 9.6% 13.7% 12.5% 12.2% 12.1% 13.4% 10.9% 4.9% 0.8%
Matthew Ricci 15.1% 12.8% 11.9% 12.8% 14.4% 14.0% 9.4% 7.3% 2.2% 0.1%
Colin Keil 7.2% 7.5% 10.6% 12.5% 11.8% 13.3% 15.3% 12.9% 7.4% 1.5%
Riley Engelberger 14.1% 15.1% 15.2% 13.4% 12.9% 11.7% 9.7% 5.5% 2.2% 0.2%
James Morgan 16.6% 16.5% 14.7% 14.6% 12.1% 10.2% 9.1% 5.0% 1.0% 0.2%
Kyle Magno 7.0% 9.9% 11.3% 10.9% 12.5% 13.0% 14.7% 14.0% 4.9% 1.8%
Patrick Firth 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 3.4% 3.1% 4.7% 11.1% 35.4% 35.6%
Elizabeth Foulston 4.5% 5.4% 5.5% 6.7% 8.6% 11.0% 14.6% 24.0% 14.7% 5.0%
Benjamin Hayes 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 3.8% 3.5% 6.1% 26.5% 54.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.