← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+3.92vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+0.25vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California2.47+0.18vs Predicted
-
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+3.37vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California0.78+1.10vs Predicted
-
6University of California at San Diego0.31+1.02vs Predicted
-
7California Poly Maritime Academy1.44-2.08vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego0.39-1.30vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.29vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-1.15vs Predicted
-
11University of Southern California2.33-7.82vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Davis-2.98-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.92California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
-
2.25University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.4%1st Place
-
3.18University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
-
7.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
-
6.1University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
-
7.02University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
-
4.92California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
-
6.7University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
-
5.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
-
8.85University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
-
3.18University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
-
10.72University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Jensen | 5.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 17.4% | 15.9% | 12.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 37.3% | 28.2% | 17.7% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 18.5% | 21.6% | 20.6% | 17.9% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 16.9% | 23.7% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 16.4% | 18.0% | 13.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 5.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 17.4% | 15.9% | 12.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 5.3% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 46.0% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 20.9% | 19.4% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bush | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 86.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.