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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+3.89vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+0.25vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.47+0.16vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+3.39vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.78+1.08vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.44-1.11vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.31+0.01vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+0.69vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.27vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.39-3.10vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.33-7.82vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-2.98-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.89California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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2.25University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.4%1st Place
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3.16University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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7.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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6.08University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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4.89California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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7.01University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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8.69University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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5.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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6.9University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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3.18University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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10.73University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Jensen | 5.8% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 37.7% | 28.3% | 16.1% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 18.4% | 21.6% | 21.3% | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 18.3% | 22.6% | 15.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 16.2% | 15.8% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 5.8% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 17.3% | 17.8% | 12.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 44.9% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 5.4% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 17.6% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 15.3% | 16.5% | 18.4% | 10.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 21.0% | 19.4% | 19.2% | 18.6% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bush | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 7.4% | 87.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.