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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.27vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+5.26vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+1.96vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47-0.89vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.44-0.04vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.31+0.98vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.78-0.84vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.34vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.39-2.20vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-1.12vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.33-7.79vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-2.98-1.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.27University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.4%1st Place
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7.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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4.96California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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3.11University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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4.96California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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6.98University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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6.16University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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5.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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6.8University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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3.21University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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10.71University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristopher Swanson | 36.0% | 28.2% | 19.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 20.0% | 15.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 17.0% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 18.6% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 17.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 17.0% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 17.7% | 19.3% | 11.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 17.3% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 5.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 17.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 16.2% | 18.6% | 9.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 46.2% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 20.1% | 20.9% | 20.0% | 15.4% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bush | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 8.0% | 86.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.