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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.30vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+1.12vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+2.19vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.78+2.63vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+2.73vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.44-0.81vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.31+0.50vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.33-4.78vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.39-1.81vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.86vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.05-3.07vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-2.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.3University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.4%1st Place
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3.12University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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5.19California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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6.63University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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7.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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5.19California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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7.5University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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3.22University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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7.19University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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6.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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7.93University of California at Davis0.050.0%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristopher Swanson | 35.4% | 27.4% | 18.1% | 12.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 20.5% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 14.4% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 20.6% | 20.5% | 19.5% | 15.7% | 12.4% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.8% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Eric Cibit | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 18.0% | 16.8% | 0.0% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 38.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.