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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.24vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.78+4.45vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.33+0.50vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+1.18vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+0.18vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.47-2.89vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+0.79vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.31-0.68vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.99vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.39-2.62vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-1.87vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis0.05-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.24University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.4%1st Place
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6.45University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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3.5University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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5.18California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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5.18California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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3.11University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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7.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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7.32University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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6.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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7.38University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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7.89University of California at Davis0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristopher Swanson | 38.1% | 26.3% | 18.3% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 14.9% | 19.7% | 20.2% | 18.1% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 16.1% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 16.1% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 21.6% | 23.0% | 19.4% | 14.8% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 16.5% | 17.2% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Eric Cibit | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 19.0% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.