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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+7.51vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.12+3.97vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.95+3.63vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+4.80vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.52+3.07vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.41+2.60vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.47+1.33vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-0.48vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.96+1.47vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-1.97vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-0.79vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.15-1.91vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.56-1.14vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.70-6.77vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.74-0.19vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.34-3.00vs Predicted
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17Yale University2.45-4.37vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan2.97-7.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.51Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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5.97Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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6.63Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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8.07Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.6University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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8.33Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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10.47Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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8.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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10.21Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.09University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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11.86Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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7.23Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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14.81Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.0Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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12.63Yale University2.450.0%1st Place
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10.24University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Raul Rios | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Macdonald | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Nate Jermain | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Alexander Stewart | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Timothy Harding | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.4% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Colin Keil | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 37.7% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 16.9% |
| Eric Anderson | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 13.8% |
| Alex Ramos | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.