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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+8.08vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.47+6.53vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.12+3.01vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+2.37vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+2.73vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.52+2.13vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.49+1.31vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.70-0.69vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.05+1.09vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan2.97+0.67vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-3.26vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.15-1.93vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.56-1.11vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont3.41-5.72vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.96-4.57vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.34-2.99vs Predicted
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17Yale University2.45-4.35vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.74-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.08St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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8.53Tufts University3.470.0%1st Place
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6.01Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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6.37Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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8.13Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.31Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.31Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.09Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.67University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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7.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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10.07University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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11.89Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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8.28University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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10.43Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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13.01Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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12.65Yale University2.450.0%1st Place
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14.7Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Clemence | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Scott Barbano | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Raul Rios | 11.3% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Scott Houck | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Timothy Harding | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
| Elise Gehling | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 17.1% |
| Eric Anderson | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Colin Keil | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 36.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.