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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.44+7.12vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+6.69vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.94+7.25vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.73+2.73vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.41+3.00vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.05+3.54vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida3.59+0.39vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.60-0.74vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.73-2.35vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.92+0.32vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.01-1.15vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.55-0.02vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-1.79vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College3.21-5.43vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.85-0.91vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-9.25vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.05-3.43vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.38-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.12Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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8.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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10.25Boston University2.940.0%1st Place
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6.73Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.0Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.54Yale University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.39University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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7.26Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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6.65Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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10.32Bowdoin College2.920.1%1st Place
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9.85Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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11.98University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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8.57Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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14.09University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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6.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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13.57Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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12.03Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin MURPHY | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Michael Saldi | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Connor Corgard | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Casey Klingler | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| Sean Cornell | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Charles Sinks | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| William Hawk | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% |
| Kayla Ellis | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 16.0% | 27.9% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Victoria McGruer | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 23.1% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.