Race 3B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Philip Koch 5.3% 6.3% 6.2% 9.3% 8.8% 7.8% 10.4% 13.2% 12.7% 10.5% 6.0% 2.9% 0.6%
Jackson Hamilton 10.8% 12.0% 11.4% 10.4% 11.5% 11.8% 10.0% 9.9% 5.5% 3.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
Jennifer Lee 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 3.6% 4.9% 4.4% 6.9% 9.2% 12.5% 19.4% 17.1% 11.7% 3.4%
Samuel Cushing 13.1% 11.7% 14.2% 10.2% 12.5% 12.6% 8.6% 7.9% 4.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Ravi Parent 21.7% 20.2% 15.2% 13.8% 10.1% 7.6% 5.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Brego 3.8% 3.8% 4.6% 5.1% 6.1% 7.3% 9.1% 8.9% 15.4% 15.6% 11.6% 7.6% 1.1%
Amanda Sommi 9.5% 6.6% 7.2% 9.4% 9.8% 10.0% 11.1% 11.0% 10.6% 9.0% 4.1% 1.6% 0.1%
Kate Shaner 8.4% 8.6% 9.6% 11.1% 9.1% 12.0% 11.0% 10.9% 9.3% 6.8% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Judas Taylor 0.9% 1.6% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 3.3% 4.7% 6.5% 9.0% 21.9% 25.5% 18.0%
Lindsay Doyle 11.4% 11.9% 12.4% 11.2% 11.2% 9.8% 9.4% 8.2% 7.5% 4.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Julie Self 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 1.3% 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 5.4% 9.2% 18.7% 26.9% 28.0%
Kyle Thomas 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% 1.6% 2.4% 3.7% 6.0% 12.4% 21.2% 48.4%
Charles Welsh 12.1% 14.0% 13.8% 12.4% 11.5% 10.3% 10.2% 7.9% 4.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.