Race 4B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ravi Parent 21.6% 17.5% 16.6% 12.7% 11.2% 8.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Kyle Brego 3.7% 3.8% 4.5% 4.7% 6.6% 5.8% 8.3% 11.4% 14.9% 17.1% 12.1% 5.5% 1.6%
Jackson Hamilton 10.2% 12.4% 10.1% 11.6% 13.4% 11.3% 11.2% 8.6% 6.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Jennifer Lee 2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 4.5% 4.9% 4.7% 6.9% 8.3% 13.1% 16.9% 18.1% 12.3% 3.1%
Kate Shaner 8.7% 10.6% 9.4% 10.5% 8.4% 11.2% 11.1% 12.2% 7.4% 5.7% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Samuel Cushing 12.6% 12.6% 14.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.3% 8.7% 6.2% 6.2% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Charles Welsh 14.3% 13.9% 13.5% 12.1% 12.8% 9.1% 8.7% 6.9% 5.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Lindsay Doyle 11.2% 11.6% 11.4% 11.4% 9.5% 12.9% 11.7% 8.6% 6.0% 3.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Amanda Sommi 6.9% 6.5% 9.1% 8.2% 9.0% 10.4% 11.7% 12.6% 10.9% 8.7% 4.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Philip Koch 6.4% 6.5% 6.3% 8.3% 8.8% 10.1% 9.1% 12.0% 13.1% 9.9% 6.7% 2.0% 0.8%
Julie Self 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4% 1.8% 2.8% 4.2% 3.9% 10.2% 16.7% 27.5% 28.9%
Judas Taylor 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 2.1% 3.3% 4.7% 6.8% 11.0% 21.0% 26.2% 18.0%
Kyle Thomas 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 3.9% 6.6% 11.6% 23.6% 47.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.