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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.16+3.59vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.52+4.66vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.78+2.85vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.90+5.04vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.29+2.56vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.90+2.97vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.48-0.04vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.38-0.92vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.39-2.88vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.10-2.72vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.86-3.00vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.68-3.34vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.81-4.85vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.33-7.73vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.53-3.03vs Predicted
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17Cornell University-1.25-1.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59St. Mary's College of Maryland4.160.2%1st Place
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6.66Brown University3.520.1%1st Place
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5.85College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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9.04Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
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7.56University of South Florida3.290.1%1st Place
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8.97University of Rhode Island2.900.0%1st Place
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6.96Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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7.08Harvard University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.12Old Dominion University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.28Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.0University of Vermont2.860.0%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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9.15Georgetown University2.810.0%1st Place
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7.27Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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12.97University of Michigan1.530.0%1st Place
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15.82Cornell University-1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Morgan Watters | 16.5% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lipschitz | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Shannon Heausler | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emilie Mademann | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 0.3% |
| Abby Featherstone | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Bethany Leonard | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Briana Provancha | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Powers | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Wilson | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Genoa Warner | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Burke | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Burke | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 0.6% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Kelsey Dubois | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 49.4% | 4.5% |
| Emily Bick | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 93.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.