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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+1.62vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.63+1.25vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.73+2.19vs Predicted
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4Rutgers University0.80+6.44vs Predicted
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5Villanova University1.80+2.77vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College2.88-1.08vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.74+0.89vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.83-0.28vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.79-3.88vs Predicted
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10Penn State University-0.14+2.53vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University0.98-0.95vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.75-3.93vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.61-4.51vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.10-1.55vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.77-1.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.62St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.3%1st Place
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3.25University of Pennsylvania3.630.2%1st Place
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5.19Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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10.44Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
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7.77Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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4.92Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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7.89Princeton University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.72University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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5.12U. S. Naval Academy2.790.1%1st Place
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12.53Penn State University-0.140.0%1st Place
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10.05Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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8.07Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.49Christopher Newport University1.610.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.46Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 32.7% | 24.6% | 17.8% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 22.5% | 21.2% | 17.0% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 9.0% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
| Andrew Sayre | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 7.7% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Marzulli | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Madeline Gill | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| James Allsopp | 8.5% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Snyder | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 26.2% | 22.7% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 3.5% |
| Joan Boyle | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Victoria Miller | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Byron Bell | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 18.9% | 26.8% | 19.5% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 20.8% | 48.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.