Race 11B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jackson Hamilton 10.7% 10.3% 12.1% 11.0% 11.8% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 6.7% 3.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Jennifer Lee 2.3% 3.2% 2.7% 3.3% 4.8% 6.1% 6.0% 7.3% 12.3% 18.5% 20.4% 9.2% 3.9%
Charles Welsh 11.5% 13.8% 12.2% 14.3% 12.9% 10.8% 8.6% 6.8% 5.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Lindsay Doyle 10.9% 9.3% 12.8% 12.2% 10.6% 10.7% 10.2% 8.6% 7.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Ravi Parent 21.6% 19.4% 13.8% 14.1% 9.5% 8.8% 5.6% 3.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Brego 3.7% 4.1% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 6.4% 9.0% 10.5% 14.0% 17.2% 12.3% 6.4% 1.3%
Kate Shaner 9.8% 8.8% 8.2% 9.3% 11.2% 10.1% 11.3% 10.1% 10.0% 7.0% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Julien Guiot 9.5% 10.8% 11.0% 9.3% 9.4% 12.0% 12.8% 10.9% 8.0% 4.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Philip Koch 5.9% 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 8.0% 9.2% 10.4% 14.3% 12.6% 11.3% 6.8% 2.5% 0.4%
Samuel Cushing 12.3% 12.0% 14.3% 12.1% 10.9% 9.9% 8.0% 9.2% 6.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Judas Taylor 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 3.2% 2.3% 3.7% 4.6% 6.6% 14.5% 22.4% 23.6% 14.8%
Julie Self 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 4.7% 6.4% 15.2% 29.9% 33.1%
Kyle Thomas 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 1.2% 1.8% 1.6% 3.1% 5.8% 11.7% 25.6% 46.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.