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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+2.94vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.31vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.01+1.57vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.29+2.48vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University1.95+2.29vs Predicted
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6Rutgers University0.06+6.98vs Predicted
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7Ocean County College1.73+1.12vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.64+0.19vs Predicted
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9Penn State University0.21+3.59vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.39+1.96vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.50-5.00vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.50-3.28vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.23+0.57vs Predicted
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14Drexel University0.20-1.44vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.51-0.82vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.29-2.25vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.94-14.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.2%1st Place
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5.31University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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4.57University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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6.48Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
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7.29Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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12.98Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
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8.12Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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8.19Villanova University1.640.0%1st Place
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12.59Penn State University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.96Christopher Newport University0.390.0%1st Place
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6.0Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.72Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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13.57University of Delaware-0.230.0%1st Place
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12.56Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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14.18Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
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13.75University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.290.0%1st Place
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2.8U. S. Naval Academy3.940.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Liberty | 17.8% | 13.7% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 9.9% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 10.8% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 12.3% |
| Zachary Schippe | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Szekalski | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jarrett Scherrer | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 12.0% | 7.4% |
| Maggie Gore | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Adrian Sawyer | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 7.9% |
| Michael Kahn | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 17.7% | 29.3% |
| Andrew Swanson | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 16.1% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| Max Lopez | 30.7% | 24.2% | 16.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.