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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.65+9.07vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.73+7.65vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+8.53vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.82+5.23vs Predicted
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5Fordham University4.26+2.56vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+2.80vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.74+2.64vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.39vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.55-2.96vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.88-1.16vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin3.36+0.22vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University4.36-4.88vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.51-2.65vs Predicted
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14George Washington University3.49-3.17vs Predicted
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15Stanford University4.19-7.49vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.25-4.38vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.49-6.34vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.80-4.42vs Predicted
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19Cornell University2.77-5.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.07College of Charleston3.650.0%1st Place
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9.65Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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11.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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9.23Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.56Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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8.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Naval Academy3.740.0%1st Place
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12.39University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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6.04Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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8.84Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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11.22University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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7.12Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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10.35University of Vermont3.510.0%1st Place
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10.83George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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7.51Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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11.62SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
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10.66Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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13.58Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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13.37Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reynolds | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% |
| Esteban Forrer | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Olin Paine | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Mary Hall | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Jack Swikart | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% |
| Graham Landy | 12.1% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Pearson Potts | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Nevin Snow | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| OJ O'Connell | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% |
| Kieran Chung | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Zachary Hill | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| Brian Drumm | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 20.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 18.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.