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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.82+7.92vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.55+3.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.74+6.32vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.65+5.33vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+3.28vs Predicted
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6Stanford University4.19+1.23vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.73+2.12vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.49+2.06vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.51vs Predicted
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10Fordham University4.26-2.83vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University4.36-4.34vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.51-1.62vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.43+1.00vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.25-3.20vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-4.25vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.80-3.00vs Predicted
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17George Washington University3.49-6.73vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.88-9.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.92Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.98Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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9.32U. S. Naval Academy3.740.0%1st Place
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9.33College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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8.28St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.23Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.12Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.06Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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11.51University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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7.17Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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6.66Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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10.38University of Vermont3.510.0%1st Place
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14.0Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.8SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
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10.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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13.0Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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10.27George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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8.24Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Forrer | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Graham Landy | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Mary Hall | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Jake Reynolds | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Kieran Chung | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% |
| Olin Paine | 10.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Nevin Snow | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| OJ O'Connell | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% |
| Thomas Balk | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 30.9% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% |
| Elliott Morrill | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 19.4% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Pearson Potts | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.