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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
5.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.96+8.83vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.52+5.48vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.73+7.90vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+3.37vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.05+4.20vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College2.70+4.69vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.79+3.36vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.87+5.71vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.71+5.37vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.38-1.82vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.25-2.44vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.89-5.72vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.39-5.31vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.73-3.71vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.90-5.15vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.95vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University3.50-9.47vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.64-11.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.83Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
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7.48Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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10.9Stanford University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.37St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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9.2SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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10.69Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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10.36George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
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13.71University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
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14.37Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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8.18Tufts University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.56Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.28College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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7.69Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.29University of Wisconsin2.730.0%1st Place
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9.85University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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12.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.53Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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6.67Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Perdomo | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Will Holz | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Luke Muller | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 3.3% |
| Markus Edegran | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Nick Valente | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Timothy Siemers | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% |
| Keen Butcher | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 25.6% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 32.5% |
| James Beatty | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Charles Rees | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Greg Martinez | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Ripkey | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% |
| William Crary | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Connor Swikart | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 11.4% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.6% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Adams | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.