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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+7.25vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.64+5.22vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.63+4.20vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.25+4.56vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.73+5.63vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin2.73+4.80vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.79+3.54vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.38-0.02vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.89-3.02vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.71+4.61vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.05-1.42vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-3.99vs Predicted
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13Fordham University3.52-5.64vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.50-6.66vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.90-4.99vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.87-1.95vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.77vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.70-7.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.25Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.22Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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8.56Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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10.63Stanford University2.730.0%1st Place
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10.8University of Wisconsin2.730.0%1st Place
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10.54George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
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7.98Tufts University3.380.1%1st Place
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5.98College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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14.61Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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9.58SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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8.01St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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7.36Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.34Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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14.05University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
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12.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.66Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Martinez | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Luke Muller | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.0% |
| Matthew Ripkey | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| James Beatty | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Charles Rees | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 36.1% |
| Nick Valente | 5.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Markus Edegran | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Will Holz | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| William Crary | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| Keen Butcher | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 25.4% |
| Connor Swikart | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 9.9% |
| Timothy Siemers | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.