← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University2.73+9.81vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University2.96+7.94vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College3.05+6.56vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy3.63+2.83vs Predicted
-
5Yale University3.25+3.42vs Predicted
-
6College of Charleston3.89+0.01vs Predicted
-
7University of Wisconsin2.73+3.61vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University3.52-0.66vs Predicted
-
9Tufts University3.38-1.08vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-2.24vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University1.71+3.38vs Predicted
-
12University of Pennsylvania1.87+2.20vs Predicted
-
13Brown University3.64-6.20vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University2.79-3.79vs Predicted
-
15Old Dominion University3.50-7.56vs Predicted
-
16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.88vs Predicted
-
17Eckerd College2.70-6.11vs Predicted
-
18University of Vermont2.90-8.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.81Stanford University2.730.0%1st Place
-
9.94Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
-
9.56SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
-
6.83U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
-
8.42Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
-
6.01College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
-
10.61University of Wisconsin2.730.0%1st Place
-
7.34Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
-
7.92Tufts University3.380.1%1st Place
-
7.76St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
-
14.38Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
-
14.2University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
-
6.8Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
-
10.21George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
-
7.44Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
-
12.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
-
10.89Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
-
9.77University of Vermont2.900.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Muller | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 4.4% |
| Juan Perdomo | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Nick Valente | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Charles Rees | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Ripkey | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Will Holz | 7.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| James Beatty | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Markus Edegran | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 17.6% | 31.0% |
| Keen Butcher | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 30.8% |
| Lucas Adams | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Connor Swikart | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Timothy Siemers | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| William Crary | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.