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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.38+6.82vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.25+6.32vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+8.81vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.79+5.79vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.73+5.11vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.02vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.73+3.22vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.70+2.25vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.89-3.32vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.50-2.65vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.87+2.44vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.64-5.01vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.39-5.53vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.52-7.11vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.71-1.13vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.96-6.64vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.63-10.25vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.87-2.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Tufts University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.32Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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11.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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9.79George Washington University2.790.0%1st Place
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10.11Stanford University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.02SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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10.22University of Wisconsin2.730.0%1st Place
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10.25Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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5.68College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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7.35Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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13.44University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
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6.99Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.47Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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6.89Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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13.87Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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9.36Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
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6.75U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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15.86University of Vermont0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Beatty | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Connor Swikart | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 5.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Luke Muller | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Nick Valente | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Ripkey | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Timothy Siemers | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Charles Rees | 11.7% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Keen Butcher | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 19.4% | 14.4% |
| Lucas Adams | 8.5% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martinez | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Will Holz | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 20.6% | 17.4% |
| Juan Perdomo | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Gary Prieto | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Henderson | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 16.1% | 51.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.