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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.94+1.65vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.01+2.57vs Predicted
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3Villanova University1.64+5.30vs Predicted
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4Drexel University0.20+8.44vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.31vs Predicted
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6Monmouth University1.95+1.57vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.50+1.71vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.29-1.68vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.29+4.84vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-6.02vs Predicted
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11Penn State University0.21+1.54vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.50-6.11vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University0.06-0.12vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College1.73-5.80vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.39-3.12vs Predicted
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16University of Delaware-0.23-2.38vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.51-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.65U. S. Naval Academy3.940.3%1st Place
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4.57University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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8.3Villanova University1.640.0%1st Place
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12.44Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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5.31University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.57Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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8.71Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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6.32Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
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13.84University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.290.0%1st Place
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3.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.2%1st Place
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12.54Penn State University0.210.0%1st Place
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5.89Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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12.88Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
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8.2Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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11.88Christopher Newport University0.390.0%1st Place
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13.62University of Delaware-0.230.0%1st Place
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14.3Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Lopez | 33.0% | 22.3% | 16.7% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 11.9% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Szekalski | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 8.0% |
| Michael Russom | 8.5% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gene Merewether | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Mildred Conroy | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Swanson | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 20.3% | 19.3% |
| Ian Liberty | 16.4% | 16.8% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jarrett Scherrer | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 7.8% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 17.1% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.5% |
| Zachary Schippe | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maggie Gore | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 5.4% |
| Adrian Sawyer | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 18.5% |
| Michael Kahn | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 29.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.