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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.26vs Predicted
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2Colgate University1.10+6.73vs Predicted
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3Drexel University1.64+4.04vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook0.05+8.14vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.33-0.17vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.22-0.66vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.71-0.22vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.87-1.84vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College0.79+1.05vs Predicted
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10William and Mary0.84-0.34vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook0.94-1.57vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.63-4.99vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-5.12vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.81+0.40vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.51-4.28vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-0.78-1.66vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University-1.25-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.3%1st Place
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8.73Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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7.04Drexel University1.640.1%1st Place
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12.14SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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4.83U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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5.34University of Pennsylvania2.220.1%1st Place
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6.78Christopher Newport University1.710.1%1st Place
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6.16Fordham University1.870.1%1st Place
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10.05Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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9.66William and Mary0.840.0%1st Place
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9.43SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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7.01Washington College1.630.1%1st Place
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7.88Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.1%1st Place
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14.4Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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10.72Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.34Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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15.22Rutgers University-1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lutz | 26.3% | 19.3% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 4.0% |
| Hannah Hughes | 13.3% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 9.8% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Keesee | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Alexander Smith | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 26.4% | 25.6% |
| Nicole Edwards | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 19.8% | 21.9% | 23.9% |
| Taylor Niles | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 13.4% | 21.9% | 42.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.