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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+2.81vs Predicted
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2Colgate University1.69+4.40vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook2.59+1.04vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.42+0.51vs Predicted
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5Columbia University-0.51+7.67vs Predicted
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6William and Mary0.87+3.20vs Predicted
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7Drexel University1.06+1.44vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.06+0.29vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.74-2.54vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.52-3.08vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology0.61-1.14vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.82-5.87vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.87-3.90vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.71-0.59vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.81-1.54vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-1.14-1.69vs Predicted
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18Penn State University-2.19-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.2%1st Place
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6.4Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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4.04SUNY Stony Brook2.590.2%1st Place
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4.51U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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12.67Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
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9.2William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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8.44Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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8.29University of Pennsylvania1.060.1%1st Place
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6.46Fordham University1.740.1%1st Place
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6.92Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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9.86Stevens Institute of Technology0.610.0%1st Place
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6.13Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
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9.1Ocean County College0.870.0%1st Place
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13.41SUNY Stony Brook-0.710.0%1st Place
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13.46Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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14.31Rutgers University-1.140.0%1st Place
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15.96Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Galster | 21.1% | 15.7% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 17.7% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 15.5% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haley Collins | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 16.5% | 18.5% | 12.8% | 5.3% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Stapp | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Slook | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Anders Hudson | 7.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Burke | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Francis George | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 21.2% | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 21.6% | 19.9% | 8.7% |
| Max Reo | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 17.4% | 27.2% | 16.5% |
| Charles Jr. Blair | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 17.2% | 60.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.