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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands0.82+4.81vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University0.99+3.57vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+3.91vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-0.36+9.10vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.18+3.22vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University1.47-1.63vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-0.55vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.63-2.15vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-0.52+2.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.73+6.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19-2.25vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.01+1.19vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-0.54vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.98+2.65vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.88-2.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.54-0.98vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego0.42-9.39vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.43-3.61vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-1.09-5.95vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-2.21-2.63vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.92-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81California State University Channel Islands0.8210.8%1st Place
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5.57Arizona State University0.9911.6%1st Place
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6.91University of California at Santa Cruz0.827.8%1st Place
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13.1University of California at Irvine-0.362.0%1st Place
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8.22University of Washington0.186.0%1st Place
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4.37San Diego State University1.4718.4%1st Place
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6.45University of California at Santa Cruz0.918.8%1st Place
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5.85University of California at Santa Cruz0.6310.2%1st Place
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11.04Arizona State University-0.522.9%1st Place
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16.15University of California at Los Angeles-1.730.5%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Davis-0.194.8%1st Place
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13.19San Diego State University-1.011.3%1st Place
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12.46University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.5%1st Place
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16.65California State University Channel Islands-1.980.8%1st Place
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12.76University of California at Irvine-0.881.7%1st Place
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15.02University of California at San Diego-1.541.5%1st Place
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7.61University of California at San Diego0.425.9%1st Place
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14.39San Diego State University-1.431.0%1st Place
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13.05Arizona State University-1.091.5%1st Place
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17.37University of California at San Diego-2.210.5%1st Place
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16.27University of California at San Diego-1.920.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Maggard | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Jaden Unruh | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 18.4% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Down | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 15.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| julian stauffer | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 19.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Jacob Horn | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen LaGuardia | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 29.2% |
| Diana Vins | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 15.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.