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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.42+3.04vs Predicted
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2Ocean County College0.70+7.05vs Predicted
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3Colgate University1.69+3.12vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.74+1.99vs Predicted
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5Washington College1.52+1.46vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-2.18vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.28+3.41vs Predicted
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8Drexel University1.06-0.17vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology0.61+0.55vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.71+3.09vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.06-2.90vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.87-3.41vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook2.59-9.10vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.14+0.21vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.81-2.72vs Predicted
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17Penn State University-2.19-1.12vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.51-5.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.04U. S. Naval Academy2.420.2%1st Place
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9.05Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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6.12Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.99Fordham University1.740.1%1st Place
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6.46Washington College1.520.1%1st Place
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3.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.2%1st Place
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10.41Christopher Newport University0.280.0%1st Place
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7.83Drexel University1.060.1%1st Place
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9.55Stevens Institute of Technology0.610.0%1st Place
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13.09SUNY Stony Brook-0.710.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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8.59William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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3.9SUNY Stony Brook2.590.2%1st Place
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14.21Rutgers University-1.140.0%1st Place
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13.28Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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15.88Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
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12.68Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Morgan | 18.9% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bicks | 8.1% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Stapp | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 6.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Galster | 17.9% | 17.9% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Locke | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Slook | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Francis George | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 17.8% | 16.4% | 6.7% |
| Joseph Egan | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 17.6% | 17.5% | 16.5% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Reo | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 27.5% | 17.9% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 18.5% | 19.6% | 8.8% |
| Charles Jr. Blair | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 17.5% | 59.9% |
| Haley Collins | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 18.2% | 12.8% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.