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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.47+3.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+4.46vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.42+4.51vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+1.82vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.99+0.38vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.36+7.07vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.16vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.19+0.75vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-1.01+4.07vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.82-4.07vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.09+2.25vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-0.52-1.05vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-0.49vs Predicted
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14University of Washington0.18-5.83vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.43-0.35vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.73+0.20vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-2.21+0.33vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-0.88-5.13vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-1.98-2.20vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.92-3.93vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.54-6.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.4San Diego State University1.4716.4%1st Place
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6.46University of California at Santa Cruz0.919.7%1st Place
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7.51University of California at San Diego0.427.0%1st Place
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5.82University of California at Santa Cruz0.6310.9%1st Place
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5.38Arizona State University0.9913.1%1st Place
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13.07University of California at Irvine-0.361.5%1st Place
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6.84University of California at Santa Cruz0.827.2%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Davis-0.194.8%1st Place
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13.07San Diego State University-1.011.8%1st Place
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5.93California State University Channel Islands0.829.5%1st Place
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13.25Arizona State University-1.091.1%1st Place
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10.95Arizona State University-0.522.5%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Los Angeles-0.962.5%1st Place
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8.17University of Washington0.185.8%1st Place
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14.65San Diego State University-1.431.0%1st Place
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16.2University of California at Los Angeles-1.730.7%1st Place
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17.33University of California at San Diego-2.210.6%1st Place
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12.87University of California at Irvine-0.881.5%1st Place
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16.8California State University Channel Islands-1.980.5%1st Place
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16.07University of California at San Diego-1.920.7%1st Place
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14.96University of California at San Diego-1.541.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 16.4% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 13.1% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| George Soliman | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| julian stauffer | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Sterling Maggard | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Andrew Down | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Conrad Kistler | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Jaden Unruh | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen LaGuardia | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 15.2% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 27.4% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 15.8% | 19.4% |
| Diana Vins | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 14.2% |
| Jacob Horn | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.