Race 1A

south-points

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Paul Perry 26.5% 23.3% 18.4% 13.7% 9.6% 4.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Sophie Salomon 4.8% 4.1% 5.7% 7.1% 9.5% 12.8% 13.4% 16.6% 15.2% 10.4% 0.4%
Ian Ikeda 15.3% 16.9% 16.0% 16.3% 13.1% 11.1% 6.1% 4.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Geoffrey Nelson 18.8% 19.8% 17.2% 16.6% 12.0% 8.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Jack Famiglietti 13.2% 12.5% 14.4% 12.1% 14.6% 12.2% 10.0% 6.5% 3.8% 0.7% 0.0%
Joseph Bello 4.6% 6.1% 7.4% 7.9% 11.5% 13.3% 15.3% 14.3% 10.9% 8.4% 0.3%
Matthew Peterson 8.3% 9.0% 9.9% 11.6% 12.8% 13.7% 14.1% 10.2% 7.1% 3.0% 0.3%
Natalie Butler 3.4% 2.8% 4.2% 6.1% 6.2% 11.3% 12.2% 16.3% 17.7% 18.6% 1.2%
Nelson Millett 2.1% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 5.1% 6.0% 8.5% 14.9% 20.3% 29.8% 4.4%
Benjamin Tino 2.7% 2.8% 3.7% 5.1% 5.4% 7.0% 12.2% 13.5% 21.9% 24.1% 1.6%
Amanda Milford 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 4.3% 91.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.