Race 2A

south-points

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Paul Perry 26.2% 23.8% 18.1% 12.9% 10.2% 4.7% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sophie Salomon 4.7% 4.4% 5.3% 7.3% 8.5% 13.7% 13.0% 16.5% 15.6% 10.5% 0.5%
Geoffrey Nelson 18.5% 18.5% 18.4% 15.8% 12.9% 7.2% 6.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Ian Ikeda 15.8% 16.4% 15.9% 17.8% 12.9% 10.3% 5.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jack Famiglietti 13.1% 13.2% 13.9% 12.7% 14.4% 12.0% 9.9% 6.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Natalie Butler 2.7% 2.6% 4.6% 5.1% 6.7% 8.9% 12.3% 18.0% 17.5% 20.6% 1.0%
Joseph Bello 6.3% 6.7% 7.0% 8.6% 11.2% 13.9% 15.8% 12.7% 11.2% 5.9% 0.7%
Matthew Peterson 7.7% 8.6% 10.0% 11.4% 12.7% 15.2% 11.6% 11.2% 8.9% 2.6% 0.1%
Nelson Millett 2.1% 2.7% 3.0% 3.1% 5.1% 7.0% 8.9% 13.1% 19.8% 30.8% 4.4%
Benjamin Tino 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 5.0% 5.3% 6.9% 13.8% 14.0% 20.5% 23.7% 1.5%
Amanda Milford 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 4.5% 91.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.