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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+3.45vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.06vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-0.30+9.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.49+1.16vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+0.08vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy2.22-0.15vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-3.31vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+3.87vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.06-0.01vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy2.56-5.16vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.42-0.22vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.01-0.17vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.79-3.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.30-1.27vs Predicted
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15University of Oregon-0.87-0.97vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-2.59vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-5.13vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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4.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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12.63University of California at Davis-0.300.0%1st Place
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5.16University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.1%1st Place
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5.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
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5.85California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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3.69University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.2%1st Place
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11.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.99University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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4.84California Poly Maritime Academy2.560.1%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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11.83University of California at Berkeley0.010.0%1st Place
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9.63University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
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12.73University of California at Santa Cruz-0.300.0%1st Place
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14.03University of Oregon-0.870.0%1st Place
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13.41University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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11.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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13.97University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 14.5% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 16.3% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Leung | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Katz | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 18.5% | 18.2% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hopps | 12.2% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martin | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Annarose Leff | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Russell Sutter | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 18.0% | 26.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 24.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.