← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+3.40vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.09vs Predicted
-
3California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+2.75vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Barbara2.49+1.17vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+0.08vs Predicted
-
6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+6.13vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Davis-0.30+5.57vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Berkeley0.79+1.49vs Predicted
-
9California Poly Maritime Academy2.56-3.98vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-6.29vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Irvine1.06-2.10vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Davis0.42-1.29vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Berkeley0.01-1.20vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-0.55vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Santa Cruz-0.30-2.39vs Predicted
-
16University of Oregon-0.87-1.88vs Predicted
-
17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-4.87vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-4.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
-
4.09University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
-
5.75California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.1%1st Place
-
5.17University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.1%1st Place
-
5.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
-
12.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
-
12.57University of California at Davis-0.300.0%1st Place
-
9.49University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
-
5.02California Poly Maritime Academy2.560.1%1st Place
-
3.71University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.2%1st Place
-
8.9University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
-
10.71University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
-
11.8University of California at Berkeley0.010.0%1st Place
-
13.45University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
-
12.61University of California at Santa Cruz-0.300.0%1st Place
-
14.12University of Oregon-0.870.0%1st Place
-
12.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
-
14.0University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 14.3% | 14.7% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 16.1% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Katz | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Leung | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hopps | 9.1% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 19.4% | 17.7% | 17.3% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martin | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| Annarose Leff | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Russell Sutter | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 26.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 19.1% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.