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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+4.74vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.18vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+1.39vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-1.34vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+6.30vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy2.56-1.99vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.06+0.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-3.75vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.30+2.75vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley1.02-1.78vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.79-2.19vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.30-0.18vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon-0.87+0.21vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis0.42-4.17vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-2.44vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-4.70vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-3.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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4.18University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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4.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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5.39University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.1%1st Place
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3.66University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.2%1st Place
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12.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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5.01California Poly Maritime Academy2.560.1%1st Place
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8.91University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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5.25University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.1%1st Place
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12.75University of California at Davis-0.300.0%1st Place
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9.22University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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9.81University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
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12.82University of California at Santa Cruz-0.300.0%1st Place
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14.21University of Oregon-0.870.0%1st Place
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10.83University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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13.56University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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12.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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14.73University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Katz | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 15.8% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 11.9% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 20.7% | 19.0% | 16.7% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hopps | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 4.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Leung | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Annarose Leff | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Russell Sutter | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 20.3% | 24.9% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Rinker | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 19.7% | 34.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.