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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.05+8.70vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.96+8.04vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.44+5.13vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.65+2.97vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.25+3.61vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.27+2.54vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.70-0.19vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.48-0.33vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81+1.45vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.27-1.12vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.45+1.02vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.96-1.77vs Predicted
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13Bates College1.80+0.93vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.68-3.26vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.22+0.67vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.77-9.37vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.80-6.33vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-12.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.7University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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10.04Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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8.13Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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6.97Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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8.61Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.54University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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6.81Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.67Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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10.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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8.88Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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12.02Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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10.23Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
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13.93Bates College1.800.0%1st Place
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10.74Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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15.67Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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6.63Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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10.67Bowdoin College2.800.0%1st Place
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5.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.6% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Colin MURPHY | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Swain | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Michael Booker | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Astwood | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| John Silvestri | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 8.4% |
| Matthew Mollerus | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| John Cappetta | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 21.0% | 22.7% |
| Scott Goodrich | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.2% |
| George Luber | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 49.0% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Lyons | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 3.7% |
| Avery Fanning | 13.0% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.