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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.65+6.31vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.96+8.08vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.05+6.71vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+1.42vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.25+3.58vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.96+3.83vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.48+0.73vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.70-1.22vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.27-0.43vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.44-1.88vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.45+1.02vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.27-3.08vs Predicted
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13Bates College1.80+0.92vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.68-3.27vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.77-8.45vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.80-5.43vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-6.40vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.22-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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10.08Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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5.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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8.58Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.83Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.73Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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6.78Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.57University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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8.12Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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12.02Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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8.92Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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13.92Bates College1.800.0%1st Place
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10.73Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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6.55Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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10.57Bowdoin College2.800.0%1st Place
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10.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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15.56Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Swain | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Mollerus | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Avery Fanning | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Astwood | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Michael Booker | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Colin MURPHY | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| John Silvestri | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 7.8% |
| Nathan Allman | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| John Cappetta | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 20.9% | 22.7% |
| Scott Goodrich | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 4.6% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Lyons | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Christopher Ford | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 3.0% |
| George Luber | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 47.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.