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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.96+8.85vs Predicted
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2Bates College1.80+12.26vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81+7.55vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.96+5.55vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+0.36vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.56+5.30vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.25+1.50vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.44-0.37vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.65-2.18vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.27-1.29vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.48-3.34vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.70-4.95vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.68-2.33vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.80-4.02vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.05-5.69vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.77-9.50vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University2.45-5.13vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.22-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.85Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
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14.26Bates College1.800.0%1st Place
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10.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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9.55Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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5.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.2%1st Place
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11.3Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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8.5Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.63Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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6.82Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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8.71University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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7.66Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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7.05Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.67Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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9.98Bowdoin College2.800.0%1st Place
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9.31University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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6.5Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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11.87Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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15.43Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Mollerus | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| John Cappetta | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 22.5% | 22.3% |
| Christopher Ford | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Avery Fanning | 15.6% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Harding | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Colin MURPHY | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Swain | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Michael Booker | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Astwood | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Scott Goodrich | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Matthew Lyons | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| John Silvestri | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 6.9% |
| George Luber | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 46.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.