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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.41+6.18vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.60+4.43vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.95+6.07vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.85+5.16vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.39+6.03vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93+2.96vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+4.54vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.58+2.32vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.61-2.92vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.92-0.75vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.90-1.76vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.94-2.74vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.38-6.06vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.81-4.83vs Predicted
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15Bates College1.65-1.07vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.94-7.08vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-3.73vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.34-6.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.18Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.43Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.07University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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9.16Boston College2.850.1%1st Place
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11.03Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
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8.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.1%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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10.32Connecticut College2.580.0%1st Place
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6.08Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.25Bowdoin College2.920.1%1st Place
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9.24University of Vermont2.900.1%1st Place
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9.26Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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6.94Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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9.17Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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13.93Bates College1.650.0%1st Place
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8.92Roger Williams University2.940.0%1st Place
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13.27Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
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11.24Yale University2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Nickerson | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Nick Sertl | 9.1% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Henry Dumke | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| John Wehner | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 7.1% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Dylan Finneran | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% |
| Alexander Giordano | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Hawk | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| William Crary | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| Michael Saldi | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Samuel Scribner | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 28.6% |
| Michael Gemperline | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 22.3% |
| Christopher Champa | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.