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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.41+6.17vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.92+7.22vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+8.78vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.95+4.72vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93+3.86vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.61+0.16vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.60-0.72vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.58+2.31vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.94-0.18vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.85-0.50vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.38-3.75vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.34-0.22vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-0.12vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.94-5.39vs Predicted
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15Bates College1.65-1.08vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.39-4.70vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.81-7.43vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont2.90-9.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.17Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.22Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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11.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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8.72University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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8.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.1%1st Place
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6.16Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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6.28Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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10.31Connecticut College2.580.0%1st Place
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8.82Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.5Boston College2.850.1%1st Place
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7.25Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.78Yale University2.340.0%1st Place
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12.88Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
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8.61Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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13.92Bates College1.650.0%1st Place
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11.3Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
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9.57Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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8.88University of Vermont2.900.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Nickerson | 8.2% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| William Hawk | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 9.2% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 11.4% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Giordano | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| Michael Saldi | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Henry Dumke | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Champa | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 19.6% |
| Michael Gemperline | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Samuel Scribner | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 29.4% |
| John Wehner | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| William Crary | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.