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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bates College1.65+13.05vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.94+7.08vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.95+6.06vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.60+2.21vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.41+1.94vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.58+4.44vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.61-0.79vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.34+3.29vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.90+0.09vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.81-0.32vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-1.97vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.92-2.64vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-0.08vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.94-5.41vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-3.52vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.38-8.82vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.85-7.59vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.39-7.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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14.05Bates College1.650.0%1st Place
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9.08Boston University2.940.0%1st Place
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9.06University of Rhode Island2.950.0%1st Place
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6.21Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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6.94Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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10.44Connecticut College2.580.0%1st Place
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6.21Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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11.29Yale University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.09University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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9.68Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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9.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.1%1st Place
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9.36Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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12.92Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
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8.59Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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7.18Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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9.41Boston College2.850.1%1st Place
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10.97Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Scribner | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 33.1% |
| Michael Saldi | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Nick Sertl | 11.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Dan Nickerson | 9.0% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Giordano | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Champa | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| William Crary | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| William Hawk | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 18.6% |
| Michael Gemperline | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Henry Dumke | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| John Wehner | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.