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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+10.72vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.61+4.35vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.90+6.37vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.95+4.68vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.41+1.89vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.94+2.90vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.38+0.15vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.81+1.30vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.39+2.23vs Predicted
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10Bates College1.65+4.12vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.92-1.86vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.34-0.21vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.58-2.76vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.94-5.44vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.85-5.76vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-6.97vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.60-10.62vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-5.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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6.35Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.37University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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8.68University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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6.89Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.9Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.15Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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9.3Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
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11.23Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
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14.12Bates College1.650.0%1st Place
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9.14Bowdoin College2.920.1%1st Place
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11.79Yale University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.24Connecticut College2.580.0%1st Place
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8.56Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.24Boston College2.850.1%1st Place
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9.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.1%1st Place
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6.38Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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12.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Finneran | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 10.6% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| William Crary | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Michael Saldi | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Charles Welsh | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| John Wehner | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.5% |
| Samuel Scribner | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 32.2% |
| William Hawk | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Christopher Champa | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% |
| Alexander Giordano | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% |
| Michael Gemperline | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Henry Dumke | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 17.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.