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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.61+5.45vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.41+5.14vs Predicted
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3Bates College1.65+11.12vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.95+4.72vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93+3.87vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.94+2.88vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.58+3.40vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.38-0.93vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.60-2.88vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.92-0.77vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.39+0.30vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.34-0.26vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.64vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.90-5.21vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.94-6.12vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.85-6.64vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-3.73vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.81-8.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.45Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.14Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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14.12Bates College1.650.0%1st Place
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8.72University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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8.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.1%1st Place
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8.88Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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10.4Connecticut College2.580.0%1st Place
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7.07Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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6.12Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.23Bowdoin College2.920.1%1st Place
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11.3Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
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11.74Yale University2.340.0%1st Place
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11.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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8.79University of Vermont2.900.1%1st Place
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8.88Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.36Boston College2.850.0%1st Place
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13.27Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
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9.31Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lalumiere | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Scribner | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 29.7% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Michael Saldi | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Giordano | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Nick Sertl | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Hawk | 7.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| John Wehner | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 7.0% |
| Christopher Champa | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% |
| Dylan Finneran | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| William Crary | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Michael Gemperline | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Henry Dumke | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 22.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.