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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+6.12vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.03+5.72vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.06+4.56vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+5.01vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.82+3.27vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.13+1.12vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.49+2.62vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.57+1.16vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.61+3.90vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.67-0.86vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-5.93vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.19-0.93vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.71-7.96vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.71-5.49vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University2.21-4.37vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.74-0.60vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.72-4.42vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.81-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.12Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.72Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.56Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.1%1st Place
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8.27Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.12Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.62Harvard University2.490.0%1st Place
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9.16Tufts University2.570.0%1st Place
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12.9Northeastern University1.610.0%1st Place
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9.14Yale University2.670.0%1st Place
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5.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.2%1st Place
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11.07University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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5.04Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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8.51Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
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10.63Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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15.4Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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12.58University of Vermont1.720.0%1st Place
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15.08Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Storck | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| James Barry | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Erin Mullins | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kayla Ellis | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Brendan Cook | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Bennett Capozzi | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Rolfe Glover | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Matteo Alampi | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 8.8% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Ty Ingram | 15.4% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Martim Anderson | 13.6% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walter Florio | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 19.4% | 38.5% |
| Mike Kanare | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Alexander Calderwood | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 22.4% | 32.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.