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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.06+6.23vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.82+6.11vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.18+3.68vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.19+6.30vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+3.69vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.03+1.08vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.71-2.25vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.13-1.33vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.67-0.56vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.49-0.54vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.72+1.31vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.39-2.07vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.34-3.35vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.61-1.71vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University2.21-4.72vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.57-7.09vs Predicted
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17Bates College0.74-1.67vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.81-3.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.23Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.11Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.68Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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10.3University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.1%1st Place
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7.08Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.75Roger Williams University3.710.2%1st Place
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6.67Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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8.44Yale University2.670.1%1st Place
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9.46Harvard University2.490.0%1st Place
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12.31University of Vermont1.720.0%1st Place
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9.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.390.0%1st Place
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9.65Connecticut College2.340.0%1st Place
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12.29Northeastern University1.610.0%1st Place
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10.28Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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8.91Tufts University2.570.0%1st Place
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15.33Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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14.88Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Mullins | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Ian Storck | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| Kayla Ellis | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| James Barry | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Martim Anderson | 16.3% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Cook | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Bennett Capozzi | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Mike Kanare | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 8.8% |
| William Reid | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Cooper Nefsky | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Matteo Alampi | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 8.3% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Rolfe Glover | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 19.2% | 39.8% |
| Alexander Calderwood | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 20.3% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.