Race 1A

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Ben Brown 16.5% 14.5% 16.7% 14.1% 13.7% 10.2% 8.4% 4.8% 1.1%
Michael Rottier 20.2% 21.9% 18.7% 15.0% 11.6% 6.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Amy Macdonald 4.6% 4.4% 6.8% 8.3% 10.3% 10.0% 17.7% 19.2% 18.7%
William Dykes 14.4% 12.8% 15.0% 15.4% 13.2% 13.8% 8.0% 5.2% 2.2%
John Sullivan 6.7% 10.1% 9.2% 12.4% 10.7% 13.5% 13.2% 14.1% 10.1%
Noah Brayer 8.8% 8.6% 10.1% 12.3% 12.5% 15.7% 15.3% 10.6% 6.1%
Jorge Castro 3.1% 4.3% 3.7% 4.0% 8.2% 10.0% 15.0% 21.4% 30.3%
Pierre DuPont 22.3% 19.3% 14.9% 14.3% 12.3% 8.9% 4.9% 2.7% 0.4%
Simon Li 3.4% 4.1% 4.9% 4.2% 7.5% 11.6% 13.3% 20.6% 30.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.