Race 4A

fall-foliage

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Noah Brayer 7.8% 9.5% 10.1% 10.5% 13.6% 16.6% 14.0% 12.2% 5.7%
William Dykes 10.3% 12.2% 14.5% 15.7% 14.2% 13.9% 10.5% 6.0% 2.7%
Simon Li 2.8% 3.6% 4.7% 6.1% 6.7% 9.2% 14.2% 21.4% 31.3%
Michael Rottier 25.3% 22.8% 17.3% 13.8% 10.4% 4.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.2%
John Sullivan 6.7% 9.5% 10.3% 11.1% 10.8% 13.5% 14.4% 13.3% 10.4%
Ben Brown 16.3% 14.9% 17.7% 13.8% 15.2% 10.5% 7.1% 3.4% 1.1%
Jorge Castro 4.0% 3.2% 3.5% 5.1% 6.8% 10.1% 14.6% 19.2% 33.5%
Amy Macdonald 5.2% 5.6% 5.6% 8.6% 9.4% 13.5% 16.0% 21.3% 14.8%
Pierre DuPont 21.6% 18.7% 16.3% 15.3% 12.9% 8.0% 5.2% 1.7% 0.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.