Race 5A

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
William Dykes 15.2% 12.5% 13.2% 15.3% 12.3% 14.2% 9.2% 6.3% 1.8%
Pierre DuPont 17.1% 19.1% 17.1% 17.5% 12.8% 7.1% 5.5% 2.9% 0.9%
Jorge Castro 3.0% 3.4% 5.2% 3.6% 7.4% 10.2% 12.4% 22.5% 32.3%
Michael Rottier 24.7% 23.7% 16.4% 14.4% 10.1% 6.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3%
Noah Brayer 8.0% 11.2% 11.9% 11.6% 12.1% 13.0% 13.8% 9.8% 8.6%
John Sullivan 7.8% 6.4% 9.4% 10.2% 11.5% 15.5% 17.6% 13.0% 8.6%
Ben Brown 15.1% 14.2% 17.2% 15.1% 15.6% 9.8% 7.8% 4.1% 1.1%
Amy Macdonald 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 6.7% 11.0% 13.5% 15.9% 21.0% 15.3%
Simon Li 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 5.6% 7.2% 10.4% 15.2% 18.9% 31.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.