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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College0.70+4.54vs Predicted
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2Middlebury College1.52+2.08vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire1.35+1.25vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.81-0.77vs Predicted
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5McGill University-0.01+1.67vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut1.96-2.97vs Predicted
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7Williams College-0.03-0.06vs Predicted
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8Amherst College0.89-2.88vs Predicted
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9Bates College0.37-2.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54Dartmouth College0.700.1%1st Place
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4.08Middlebury College1.520.1%1st Place
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4.25University of New Hampshire1.350.1%1st Place
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3.23Tufts University1.810.2%1st Place
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6.67McGill University-0.010.0%1st Place
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3.03University of Connecticut1.960.2%1st Place
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6.94Williams College-0.030.0%1st Place
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5.12Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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6.14Bates College0.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Sullivan | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 18.3% | 14.9% | 9.5% |
| Ben Brown | 11.7% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| William Dykes | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% |
| Pierre DuPont | 22.3% | 20.2% | 19.0% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Simon Li | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 30.0% |
| Michael Rottier | 24.5% | 21.7% | 18.1% | 14.9% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Jorge Castro | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 22.0% | 32.0% |
| Noah Brayer | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 6.7% |
| Amy Macdonald | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 16.3% | 19.9% | 16.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.