Race 8A

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Ben Brown 16.4% 14.6% 14.9% 16.0% 13.8% 9.8% 8.5% 5.3% 0.7%
William Dykes 10.2% 12.5% 16.3% 13.7% 16.4% 12.7% 9.5% 5.7% 3.0%
Pierre DuPont 21.4% 18.8% 16.7% 14.2% 12.5% 9.3% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3%
Michael Rottier 24.8% 24.3% 15.7% 14.4% 10.3% 5.4% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4%
John Sullivan 7.0% 8.9% 10.6% 11.2% 10.8% 13.4% 15.0% 13.7% 9.4%
Jorge Castro 3.5% 2.6% 4.9% 6.8% 7.1% 9.5% 13.8% 22.1% 29.7%
Amy Macdonald 4.7% 4.7% 7.0% 7.1% 9.1% 14.2% 16.0% 20.3% 16.9%
Noah Brayer 8.7% 8.9% 10.5% 11.6% 12.3% 15.2% 14.1% 12.1% 6.6%
Simon Li 3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 5.0% 7.7% 10.5% 14.4% 18.0% 33.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.