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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+10.63vs Predicted
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2Fordham University4.26+4.99vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.49+7.40vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+4.00vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.63+4.45vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.18+5.46vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.64+2.42vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.23+3.11vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.80-0.28vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-0.20vs Predicted
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11Yale University4.08-3.29vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.05+0.27vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.73-4.12vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.92-6.11vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.74-6.05vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.49-5.81vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.62-7.34vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University3.82-9.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.63University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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6.99Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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10.4Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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8.0Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.45University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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11.46Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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9.42Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.11Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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8.72Stanford University3.800.0%1st Place
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9.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.71Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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12.27SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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8.88Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.89Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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10.19Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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9.66College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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8.47Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.9% |
| Olin Paine | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| William Macdonald | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 13.4% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Hans Henken | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Ian Barrows | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Nick Valente | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 17.1% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| William Bailey | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Mary Hall | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Scott Houck | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.