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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+7.29vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.62+7.80vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.63+6.74vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.08+3.46vs Predicted
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5Fordham University4.26+1.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.74+2.95vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.73+1.99vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.92+0.17vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+0.50vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.80-1.00vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.05+1.07vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.18-0.15vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.23-1.98vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.49-4.25vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.49-4.96vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-4.41vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.64-7.39vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University3.82-9.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.29Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.8College of Charleston3.620.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Vermont3.630.0%1st Place
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7.46Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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8.99Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.17Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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9.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.0%1st Place
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9.0Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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12.07SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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11.85Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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11.02Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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9.75Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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10.04Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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11.59University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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9.61Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.44Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Nick Johnstone | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| Ian Barrows | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Olin Paine | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Mary Hall | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| William Bailey | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% |
| Alexander Stewart | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% |
| Hans Henken | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Nick Valente | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 16.3% |
| Jack McGuire | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 15.0% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| Scott Houck | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 13.9% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.